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The two Phoenix all-electric cases are quite interesting. Electricity costs in Phoenix are less than
twice the cost of natural gas, but natural gas water heating is not selected for the all-electric
homes in Phoenix. Rather, because of the advantageous solar potential, a solar hot water system
is selected for both all-electric cases. Conversely, solar hot water is not selected in Phoenix for
the gas home archetype. Instead, the hot water pipes and the hot water tank are insulated—
measures that are not selected for the all-electric homes in Phoenix, where solar hot water
systems are selected instead.
This illustrates the importance of the relationship between electricity and gas prices to the
specific results. However, the absolute prices of gas and electricity are also very important to the
selection of improvement measures and the potential to cut source energy use through retrofit
measures. This is particularly true for PV, which is selected as cost effective in eight archetypes.
The five archetypes in California and New York all select 5-kW PV systems as cost effective
because of the high price of electricity in those states ($0.1475/kWh and $0.1874/kWh,
respectively). A 5-kW PV system is also selected as cost effective in Phoenix, where electricity
prices are much lower ($0.1097/kWh), but where the solar resource is the greatest of all the
climates studied. There, the generic 5-kW PV system produces 9,375 kWh/yr. In New York, San
Francisco, and Los Angeles, the 5-kW PV systems produce 6,971, 8,080, and 8,424 kWh/yr,
respectively. In New York, high electricity prices drive the selection of PV and in San Francisco
and Los Angeles, the combination of a good solar resource plus high electricity prices enhance
the desirability of the PV systems.
Utility prices also drive cost optimization from another important perspective. If utility prices are
low, fewer improvement measures are selected as cost effective and smaller savings percentages
are achieved. Denver, where electricity is $0.11/kWh and natural gas is $0.838/therm, offers
perhaps the best example of this fact. Denver has the lowest natural gas price of all 14 cities.
Thus, the cost-effective savings for the Denver natural gas archetype are only 18%, even though
the weather is fairly severe. In fact, because of the price of natural gas, it is not even cost
effective to improve the efficiency of the archetype 76% AFUE gas furnace in Denver,
something that was done in the other cold climate archetypes (Detroit and Minneapolis).
Table 10 also illustrates the sensitivity of improvement measures to their specific performance
and cost characteristics. For example, replacing 100% of the incandescent lighting with CFLs or
equivalent light-emitting diodes (LEDs) is cost effective in every location and circumstance.
Thus, this measure does not appear to be sensitive to either climate or utility price. Home energy
management (HEM) systems also appear to be cost effective across a large variety of climates
and archetypes. They are selected in all archetypes except four located in Atlanta, Seattle, St.
Louis, and Denver. Electricity prices are $0.10, $0.08, $0.09, and $0.11/kWh, respectively, in
these cities. We also see that for most climates, addressing duct leakage is cost effective. The
notable exceptions are Los Angeles, where the cooling and heating loads are very small, and in
most of the unconditioned basement archetypes, where the archetype distribution system leakage
is much less substantive.